The AI bubble is a speculative concept that the AI industry is extremely over-valued. If true, the value of most companies involved in AI (several of whom are worth well over a trillion dollars) will collapse, devastating the entire economy. If you check any online discussion about the financial situation …
Average users when I started using computers had 64k and were happy. They will buy average computers but average computers become more powerful.
mid-spec computers from 2013 are almost perfectly serviceable today
Yeah, why not. I have an old (not quite 2013 though) Atom netbook that’s serviceable. As long as nobody installs Windows on it at least.
Because current fabrication process of chips seems to be very close to limits imposed by the laws of physics.
So? That’s pretty much always been the case. And then someone figures something out. That something doesn’t have to be related to fabrication at all. Just a few years ago people were in awe at what Apple managed to do with simply a better design.
All of this talk is under the premise that AI works and will keep getting better. Surely if that’s the case, at least the AI will come up with something. You say it won’t, but that really just means it’s not the super intelligence the AI companies are chasing and their whole plan failed.
Why let the user have the model when you can rent it off to them?
Because most companies are not AI companies. If the AI is just a part of your product that makes users more likely to but it, you don’t need to rent it out.
It’s not like there’s much of a choice anyway as long as there are labs that are just publishing their weights. There’s already a trend now that AI useing companies are cutting costs by dropping online models in favor of self hosted open weights ones.
Size is not the only limitation imposed by physics. And the biggest reason we want to make chips small in the first place is electrical signal travel time, one of the limitations that has been around forever. Another way we’be been approaching it is parallelization, and there is no limit imposed by physics in sight there. Another limit we’re not even close to is the optoelectronic switching limit, which is 1 petahertz.
Average users when I started using computers had 64k and were happy. They will buy average computers but average computers become more powerful.
Yeah, why not. I have an old (not quite 2013 though) Atom netbook that’s serviceable. As long as nobody installs Windows on it at least.
So? That’s pretty much always been the case. And then someone figures something out. That something doesn’t have to be related to fabrication at all. Just a few years ago people were in awe at what Apple managed to do with simply a better design.
All of this talk is under the premise that AI works and will keep getting better. Surely if that’s the case, at least the AI will come up with something. You say it won’t, but that really just means it’s not the super intelligence the AI companies are chasing and their whole plan failed.
Because most companies are not AI companies. If the AI is just a part of your product that makes users more likely to but it, you don’t need to rent it out.
It’s not like there’s much of a choice anyway as long as there are labs that are just publishing their weights. There’s already a trend now that AI useing companies are cutting costs by dropping online models in favor of self hosted open weights ones.
That’s not mid spec, that’s bottom spec
Ah yes, transistor fabrication has always been very close to the atomic level , no wonder it “pretty much always been the case”. /s
Size is not the only limitation imposed by physics. And the biggest reason we want to make chips small in the first place is electrical signal travel time, one of the limitations that has been around forever. Another way we’be been approaching it is parallelization, and there is no limit imposed by physics in sight there. Another limit we’re not even close to is the optoelectronic switching limit, which is 1 petahertz.