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Cake day: July 18th, 2023

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  • You have to be at least 30 to be in the Senate, but because its a much more prestigious office than Congress, most Senators were in Congress or something similar before making it to the Senate. This puts the younger senators being in their mid/late 30s and that’s not even super common. That tied with a Senate seat being 6 years, means you’re looking at the average being in the mid 40s even if people are elected relatively young.

    If those senators win one re-election, they’d basically be in their 50s by the end of their second term.

    Should we get more churn in the Senate, absolutely. However, I don’t think you’ll get it much lower than the mid 50s even with term limits, just due to the nature of the position. I think term limits would put upward pressure on the youngest voted in, but put more pressure downwards on the oldest voted in. So you would probably shrink the standard deviation, but only get the mean to mod/high 50s.




  • Yeah, I was going to say something similar. What job you take, where you decide to live, friends you make all have a risk/reward element to them.

    That being said I do believe there is a big difference between polymarket/prediction markets and stocks (or at least some stocks). Prediction markets is either betting on pure chance or against insider knowledge. Technically stocks should be seen as investing in a company (especially ones that pay dividends). Could a company run into hard times and lose you money, sure, but there is at least a bit more freely available information on that available to you.






  • No its about traditional physics based models vs Machine Learning models (or AI). Google’s model isn’t using LLMs, but still uses deep learning models to predict the weather. Per the article:

    At that point, many of the physics-based computer models, which rely on mathematical equations describing how the atmosphere works to simulate future weather conditions, were vacillating between different projections but generally forecasting a weaker storm that would take a different track than the DeepMind and other AI models were showing.

    The original commentors point is valid in that we just call everything AI right now. While it’s not a terrible term for ML models, the general public largely associates AI with LLMs which is a misnomer.



  • Yeah, there are implicit and explicit biases at every stage of these models. The training data they collect, how they clean and use their training data, the actual training methodology, the prompts to literally alter the final output.

    That’s not to mention the main things LLM aren’t aware of, which is who are you as a person. An LLM doesn’t know nor can it understand your life experiences and how that shapes your opinions on who is best to represent you. Handing over cognition like this is basically throwing away your vote as you’ve forfeited one of the major methods you have to influence your government.