We’ll see these kinds of things in the next war. Russia and Ukraine would be there already if they had time to stockpile the drones rather than needing to deploy them as fast as they can be manufactured.
With a few years of peace to build a reserve, there will more than enough drones and cheap spring-assisted launchers to serve as a terrifying new arm of MAD.
Regardless of how wars are won, they are prevented by altering the risk picture for the enemy.
This is also why many smaller NATO states are scrambling to procure long-range missiles outside of US control. In a hybrid war with Russia, they would control the escalation ladder - I.e. be able to yeet some high explosives at powerplants and fuel depots - rather than relying on Washington to grant permission.
Ukraine has been doing similar with the flamingo and other cruise ‘missile drone’ projects. Iran as well - look at their response to US aggression.
The trajectory is clear, mass precision strike is cheap and corresponding defense is not. Having a stockpile of millions of flying problems for your enemy to consider is the best deterrent short of nuclear weapons.
Right, but I thought you were saying we would see these things to the posts drones that can follow humans through the forest, not the general drones for hitting nonhuman targets.
Ukraine built 8 million drones in the first half of 2026. Many different types, but the majority of them are designed to directly attack humans and light vehicles.
The limiting factor in their deployment is the number of operators - currently the most common operating model is 1 drone per operator at a time, which means there are only so many drones in the air at the same time. These kinds of hunting algorithms will allow the scale of drone warfare to increase by loosening the operator bottleneck.
There is force generation (recruitment, manufacturing, organization, etc.) and force employment (actually using those resources to achieve goals). Force generation for unmanned systems is already mature - again we are making millions of these things already - further advancement will come in force employment.
Got any source for those numbers. I am fine with being wrong, but my impression from things I have read was that they were focused on drones that hit targets farther away. And that human targeting drones were the lesser of the production focus.
The stuff I read talked about fiber optic cable for controlling the smaller ones becuase the jamming was too good. But it took a lot of cable. And each one required a circuit board and all that. The electronics were the harder to get part, so a bigger drone made better use of it.
But like I said, I could have gotten the wrong impression.
There aren’t sources that directly confirm the exact numbers of drones across types, as that is sensitive information in the middle of a war.
There are sources that put the FPV drone number in the millions annually, with long range strike being in the thousands. Source
By spring 2026, Ukraine produces an estimated 1–4M FPV attack drones per year across hundreds of distributed production facilities, 500–1,000+ long-range strike drones per month, advanced naval surface drones, and growing categories of reconnaissance and electronic warfare UAVs.
Statements from the Prime minister and defense minister agree Source
Ukrainian defense companies intend to manufacture nearly 3,000 cruise missiles and drone missiles, as well as at least 30,000 long-range drones. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated … Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on 21 September 2024 that Ukraine plans to produce several million drones in 2025
Millions manufactured with thousands planned to be long-range strike, the balance is short-range drones. Source
Small FPV drones: Annual production target of 6 to 7 million units, equating to roughly 500,000 per month.
Manufacturing base: Approximately 450 to 500 drone enterprises operating on a distributed model across the country. At theoretical maximum capacity, this network can push 19,000 aerial vehicles into the battlespace per day.
Long-range strike drones: The FP-series (long-range fixed-wing strike UAVs) has surpassed 100,000 units in cumulative production.
And then there’s the coming swarm technology to increase force employment:
On 17 February 2026, Minister of Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin announced the successful trial of AI-based drone swarm technology. Seven teams of manufacturers demonstrated a single-operator system capable of controlling dozens of drones in an autonomous network. These swarms plan their own actions and predict the behaviour of others within the network, allowing the operator to focus solely on target authorisation.
Source
Thanks for the detailed info. Guess my impression was wrong.
Interesting overall. With humans being so exposed to the small fpv drones, it would seem their role in combat should be greatly reduced. Or it is heading toward WWI trench warefare style. Some kind of drone hardened bunker to hold the line, but no real way to advance. Though those bunkers would be much harder to set up than the trenchs were. So the lines will end up being much farther apart.
Seems like ground invasions will be out of style for a while.
Interesting stuff overall. Sad that human lives are involved.
No. No peace for you, only being hunted by autonomous drones. Now please kindly start running so we can test our latest movement prediction algorithms. You may feel a small pinch as the drone catches you, but don’t worry, it’ll soon be over.
I feel like the nightmares I started having several years ago are starting to become real.
People said I was having psychosis but no, I was looking into the future and seeing the most likely conclusion of the road the world is going down if we don’t change course.
It’s not like I saw it in a crystal ball or anything like that. Just basic sequential cause-and-effect. But people would rather blindly step off a cliff because “well we haven’t plunged to our demise yet, so clearly it must be safe to continue without adjustment.”
Fuck it, string me up on a cross then. If it means enduring world peace, sufficient climate action, and ecological restoration. Oh and also restorative justice, an end to poverty and hunger, and universal healthcare and education. Worldwide of course. Forever.
I will however require binding and actionable guarantees first. Once the paperwork is in order I shall meet you in Gethsemane. Or shall we skip straight to Golgotha?
This is likely the most brilliant comment I will read today, or any time soon. I’d punch out for any one of those things. Even for a solid chance, no guarantees needed.
Yeah, I thought about settling for less. Maybe one or two things. But then I thought “wait a minute, if I die then I can’t keep fighting for the rest. If I live I can fight on for a few more decades, maybe make a bigger difference.”
Maybe dying would be quicker and easier than living to fight for a better world, but knowing the snakes who would be doing the crucifying, if you leave them any room to wiggle out of their end of the bargain they’ll be shredding the contract before you’re done gasping out your last breaths.
So don’t sell yourself short! You’re worth everything, or no deal.
We’ll see these kinds of things in the next war. Russia and Ukraine would be there already if they had time to stockpile the drones rather than needing to deploy them as fast as they can be manufactured.
With a few years of peace to build a reserve, there will more than enough drones and cheap spring-assisted launchers to serve as a terrifying new arm of MAD.
I’m not sure. Wars are won by costing the enemy’s money these days. So they are using drones on infrastructure, becuase that costs more than soldiers.
Regardless of how wars are won, they are prevented by altering the risk picture for the enemy.
This is also why many smaller NATO states are scrambling to procure long-range missiles outside of US control. In a hybrid war with Russia, they would control the escalation ladder - I.e. be able to yeet some high explosives at powerplants and fuel depots - rather than relying on Washington to grant permission.
Ukraine has been doing similar with the flamingo and other cruise ‘missile drone’ projects. Iran as well - look at their response to US aggression.
The trajectory is clear, mass precision strike is cheap and corresponding defense is not. Having a stockpile of millions of flying problems for your enemy to consider is the best deterrent short of nuclear weapons.
Right, but I thought you were saying we would see these things to the posts drones that can follow humans through the forest, not the general drones for hitting nonhuman targets.
Ukraine built 8 million drones in the first half of 2026. Many different types, but the majority of them are designed to directly attack humans and light vehicles.
The limiting factor in their deployment is the number of operators - currently the most common operating model is 1 drone per operator at a time, which means there are only so many drones in the air at the same time. These kinds of hunting algorithms will allow the scale of drone warfare to increase by loosening the operator bottleneck.
There is force generation (recruitment, manufacturing, organization, etc.) and force employment (actually using those resources to achieve goals). Force generation for unmanned systems is already mature - again we are making millions of these things already - further advancement will come in force employment.
And what a fresh hell that will be.
Got any source for those numbers. I am fine with being wrong, but my impression from things I have read was that they were focused on drones that hit targets farther away. And that human targeting drones were the lesser of the production focus. The stuff I read talked about fiber optic cable for controlling the smaller ones becuase the jamming was too good. But it took a lot of cable. And each one required a circuit board and all that. The electronics were the harder to get part, so a bigger drone made better use of it. But like I said, I could have gotten the wrong impression.
There aren’t sources that directly confirm the exact numbers of drones across types, as that is sensitive information in the middle of a war.
There are sources that put the FPV drone number in the millions annually, with long range strike being in the thousands. Source
Statements from the Prime minister and defense minister agree Source
Millions manufactured with thousands planned to be long-range strike, the balance is short-range drones. Source
And then there’s the coming swarm technology to increase force employment:
Thanks for the detailed info. Guess my impression was wrong. Interesting overall. With humans being so exposed to the small fpv drones, it would seem their role in combat should be greatly reduced. Or it is heading toward WWI trench warefare style. Some kind of drone hardened bunker to hold the line, but no real way to advance. Though those bunkers would be much harder to set up than the trenchs were. So the lines will end up being much farther apart. Seems like ground invasions will be out of style for a while. Interesting stuff overall. Sad that human lives are involved.
What the fuck
People attempting to take your life and land is quite motivating.
“Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result.”
― Winston Churchill
Can we just have world peace instead?
No. No peace for you, only being hunted by autonomous drones. Now please kindly start running so we can test our latest movement prediction algorithms. You may feel a small pinch as the drone catches you, but don’t worry, it’ll soon be over.
I feel like the nightmares I started having several years ago are starting to become real.
People said I was having psychosis but no, I was looking into the future and seeing the most likely conclusion of the road the world is going down if we don’t change course.
It’s not like I saw it in a crystal ball or anything like that. Just basic sequential cause-and-effect. But people would rather blindly step off a cliff because “well we haven’t plunged to our demise yet, so clearly it must be safe to continue without adjustment.”
What are you willing to give for that?
Would anything I offer be enough?
If you dedicate your life to it, it could be.
Fuck it, string me up on a cross then. If it means enduring world peace, sufficient climate action, and ecological restoration. Oh and also restorative justice, an end to poverty and hunger, and universal healthcare and education. Worldwide of course. Forever.
I will however require binding and actionable guarantees first. Once the paperwork is in order I shall meet you in Gethsemane. Or shall we skip straight to Golgotha?
No skipping, no quick solution. World peace may take the rest of your life and there is no guarantee.
Yes and the odds are stacked against it at that
This is likely the most brilliant comment I will read today, or any time soon. I’d punch out for any one of those things. Even for a solid chance, no guarantees needed.
Yeah, I thought about settling for less. Maybe one or two things. But then I thought “wait a minute, if I die then I can’t keep fighting for the rest. If I live I can fight on for a few more decades, maybe make a bigger difference.”
Maybe dying would be quicker and easier than living to fight for a better world, but knowing the snakes who would be doing the crucifying, if you leave them any room to wiggle out of their end of the bargain they’ll be shredding the contract before you’re done gasping out your last breaths.
So don’t sell yourself short! You’re worth everything, or no deal.
A few world leaders like Putin